The Wizard speaks: Expansion

The final part of our series for 'The Wizard speaks' will be on expansion in the MLS. The Don might have only mentioned it for a period of 30 seconds, but the words and statements within the paragraph are absolute gold for those that want to speculate on the future of Major League Soccer.

Today, we believe we are going to be a 20-team league. What we think in 2020 or 2025, I can't answer and won't be around to have to address.

We'll start here. The Don admits that his fountain of youth will eventually run dry and that he won't be around forever. No surprise considering the MLS has had two Commissioners in the 13-year history. 2020 or 2025 can be considered huge years for the MLS, as a potential World Cup bid is still in the work for the U.S. The future of the league will springboard off of the success of that bid and can propel many future owners to start investing in the league.

However, the most intriguing comment is the one about the size of the league. As he puts it, a 20-team league is the objective of the MLS entity. Garber said the same thing earlier this year when he was selecting which cities would receive franchises in 2011. It makes sense that the league would be most viable in the next few years at 20 teams, allowing teams to develop and grow within their own systems without constantly being torn apart by expansion drafts or learning new rosters and the logistics around traveling to new cities.

But as soon as he begins on this track, he explores the eventual growth of the league:

This is a big country, it's the size of a continent, and along with Canada, it gets even bigger. We're covering 300-plus million, which is far bigger than any other country where you have the 18- or 20-team leagues in Europe or other parts of the world. We don't have promotion and relegation, so the size of the league is less relevant than a league that might have a second and third division.

Hmm. I know the Soccer Don wasn't trying to backtrack on his words, but it sure seems like it. Since he used a precursor to his statement by saying, 'I won't be here at this point, but....,' I guess I can't blame him for stating it. 

The league will be huge one day, and I'm just talking about popularity. To think that the league will just stop increasing the number of teams just because they think they have enough is not going to happen. As Garber says, the league covers a huge amount of area. As a comparison, the MLB has 30 teams spread out all over the place in markets that are most profitable and most widely spread. The NBA is definitely similar (especially by putting a team in Oklahoma City), and perhaps the best example is the NHL where the league has teams in both North American countries as the MLS.

The Commissioner did not come out and say it, but by mentioning the size of the potential market he brings up the topic of how many teams can we include in the league, rather than where do we stop recruiting. The playoff system will keep teams in check and still encourage a 25- or 30-team league to compete to the bitter end, which further enhance his perceived case.

Lastly, the Commissioner brings up new expansion besides the teams already selected:

We have had productive conversations with Montreal to be our 19th team. We have not put a timetable as to when that team would enter the league if we reach agreement with them. We don't have any active discussions for the 20th team.

Uh oh. Montreal? Wasn't that a team that just recently broke away from the USL to form a new league that may or may not receive licensure from U.S. Soccer? I realize that the Canadian club has dominated its opponents, but don't you think it would be more financial suitable to just try and get into the MLS in a couple years rather than just splitting from an already established league and forming some rogue organization? I'm just saying.

But if the Don thinks it's a good idea, I'll buy it. As for the 20th team, I'll leave that up to you to speculate.

So until Don Garber speaks again about topics far and wide, the Wizard will retire once again to the Emerald City (both of them), locking up Oz until next year. Potentially Carey and company can bring up some more topics during the Supporters Summit (rather than talking about how awesome Seattle is). I'm looking forward to it.
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